This decline may have some impact on future housing price growth, as both loan volumes and values have decreased. Ben Jarman, an economist at JPMorgan, noted that housing prices have recently lost momentum, consistent with leading indicators such as transaction volumes and auction clearance rates. He believes that the slowdown in housing price growth reflects the market returning to a pace more consistent with the subdued trend in mortgage activity.

Improvements in loan processing times may be one of the reasons for the changes in the January data. Mish Tane, Director of Financial Statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics, stated that recent optimizations in loan processing times have increased the volume of loans processed during peak periods, resulting in an increase compared to previous years.

Besa Deda, Chief Economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, pointed out that loans approved in January may have been completed earlier, meaning more loan turnover could be completed before the summer break. She emphasized that this situation may have reduced the volume of new loans processed in January and also obscured the growth from returning property investors.

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While new loan commitments from property investors declined by 2.6% in January, they still grew by 18.5% compared to the same period last year. In contrast, new loan commitments from owner-occupiers declined by 4.6%. Over the past 12 months, investor new loan commitments have decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, with a larger decrease of 12.6% for owner-occupiers.

Ms. Deda pointed out that investor loans are closely related to property prices, with significant growth in investor loans observed in Western Australia (up 63.1%), South Australia (up 41.7%), and Queensland (up 22.6%), where property prices also showed strong growth during the same period.

New loans for first home buyers declined by 6% in January, marking the weakest month since July. Overall, the declining trend in new home loan values indicates that the Australian real estate market is facing some challenges, and the loan situation for investors and owner-occupiers also reflects dynamic changes in the market, necessitating close attention to future developments.