According to the latest data, Victoria's rental vacancy rate hit a historical low of 1.14% in September 2021, marking the lowest point since 2018, with less than 8,000 housing units available for lease. In Melbourne, out of a total of 498,472 housing units, the current vacancy rate stands at 1.15%, meaning only 5,730 units are available for prospective tenants.
Economist Anne Flaherty suggests that the number of available rental properties has significantly dwindled. Their data indicates that nearly 30% of the housing listed in Melbourne as of June 2021 was owned by landlords.
Additionally, the reduced household sizes following the pandemic and increased immigration have intensified the demand for rental housing. Melbourne's rental prices have increased at a faster pace over the past year compared to any other major city, leading some tenants to abandon their savings for purchasing houses and instead opt for buying apartments.
However, first-time homebuyers are encountering mounting difficulties in entering the housing market. The Home Guarantee Scheme, implemented four years ago, has seen a peak in the number of first-time buyers utilizing the program. This scheme allows first-time buyers to purchase homes with a minimum 5% down payment, eliminating the need to pay mortgage insurance, with the remaining 20% down payment and mortgage insurance guaranteed by the federal government.
According to the NFHIC report, the number of first-time buyers utilizing the scheme in the 2023 fiscal year has risen to 45,000 individuals. Nevertheless, with the Australian property market's total value surpassing 10 trillion Australian dollars, reaching 400% of the nation's GDP, some concerns have been raised about the exorbitant property prices, potentially exacerbating housing affordability in a normal economy.
Another pressing issue is the imminent "loan cliff." The Reserve Bank of Australia provided commercial banks with low-interest loans worth 200 billion Australian dollars through special channels, aiding families in mitigating the economic pressures brought about by the pandemic.
These special loans are set to expire at the end of this year and the beginning of the next, leading to a significant rise in interest rates to over 6.5%, resulting in doubled repayment costs. Moody's report shows an increasing number of households facing delinquent repayments.
Despite the numerous challenges, as long as the Australian government can skillfully regulate the supply-demand dynamics of the property market and persist through the upcoming interest rate cycle, a sudden property market collapse is unlikely.
Furthermore, the Australian government needs to seize the opportunity presented by India as a global economic growth engine to compensate for lost Chinese business opportunities and wealth, attract high-net-worth overseas immigrants, and maintain its diverse cultural characteristics, equitable class relations, and high-quality living environment. Sustained influx of high-net-worth immigrants can help maintain the vibrancy of the property market.
