According to data from CoreLogic, since the market hit its low point on January 29th, house prices in Australia's five major cities (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth) have rebounded by 8.4%. This indicates a gradual warming of the Australian real estate market.

However, considering that "the average number of dwellings approved per month over the past six months was 13,355, 23% lower than the ten-year average level," it implies that housing supply will continue to be extremely tight. Particularly noteworthy is the significant decline in approvals for the apartment category, indicating that the supply of apartments will be especially scarce.

Meanwhile, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the Australian population grew by 2.2% to reach 26.5 million in the 12 months ending on March 31st this year. Of this growth, net overseas migration accounted for 81%.

According to ABS Population Statistics Director Beidar Cho, "After 13 months of the international border reopening, the population has increased by 454,400 people in the year ending March 2023." The primary driving factor behind this rapid growth was a substantial increase in arrivals (up 103% from last year to 681,000 people), with only a slight increase in departures of overseas migrants (up 8.8% to 226,600 people).

This pattern, particularly the low departure rate, is primarily a catch-up effect following the closure of international borders, as there was virtually no one leaving during the pandemic. It is expected that this impact will be temporary, with the departure numbers expected to rise as temporary students begin leaving in normal numbers.

In terms of population growth rates, Western Australia leads with a 2.8% increase, followed by Victoria (+2.4%) and Queensland (+2.3%). Victoria saw the largest overall population increase, reaching 161,700 people, slightly exceeding New South Wales' 156,300 people.

This massive influx of immigrants will lead to a surge in migration and residential construction, further exacerbating the shortage of market supply. Vacancy rates for new listings are quite high, indicating that demand in the housing market continues to far exceed supply in most areas.

With the current official cash rate set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at 4.10%, the next RBA board meeting and official cash rate announcement is scheduled for November 7, 2023. As rates rise, borrowing costs will also increase, potentially making it more expensive for businesses to seek loans for new projects or purchases of houses, cars, and other commodities. The increase in borrowing costs could lead to reduced investment and consumption, thereby slowing down economic growth.

This has brought financial strain to many households, but some families have also benefited from rising house prices, significant savings buffers, and higher interest income.

It is expected that the average mortgage rates will continue to rise over the next six months. Despite Australia experiencing per capita economic recession, a decline in real household consumption, and weakness in the labor market, the average mortgage rates will continue to rise over the next six months as fixed-rate mortgages gradually reset.

According to real estate agent John McGrath's conclusion, Australian house prices are likely to reach a new historical high and continue to rise over the next 18 months. If the Australian central bank begins to cut interest rates next year, house prices may further soar.