Recent data and expert opinion on the Australian real estate market has revealed a number of compelling trends and forecasts. David Bassanese, Chief Economist at Betashares, was shocked by the May data and said it was a "very poor performance", which has increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in August. The pressure to raise interest rates in August. Meanwhile, Su-Lin Ong, chief economist at the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), pointed out that the current level of interest rates may not be enough to bring inflation back down to the Fed's 3% target next year or earlier, and she thinks the Fed may raise rates in August.
Harry Murphy Cruise, an economist at Moody's Analytics, noted that the government's tax cuts and rebates, which began on July 1, will make it more challenging for the Fed. These policies are designed to stimulate the economy, but could inject large amounts of new spending into the economy at the same time as the Aussie Fed is trying to rein in household spending.
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In terms of the real estate market, the latest CoreLogic Gain & Pain report shows that of the 85,000 properties resold in the first quarter of this year, more than 94% realized a nominal increase in value. The study found that homeowners who have held their properties for the longest period of time have made the most lucrative profits over the past 30 years. In particular, resale gains for detached houses continue to be higher than for apartments across Australia.
Specifically, the report shows that 97.1% of detached houses realized a nominal increase in value on resale, compared to 89% for apartments. The median appreciation amount for detached houses reached A$320,000 compared to A$172,500 for apartments. These figures reflect the difference in real estate market performance between property types and the continued preference for detached houses.
House prices in the two major cities of Melbourne and Sydney are also at the center of the market's attention. According to forecasts, Melbourne house prices are expected to rise by between 3% and 6% in the next financial year, an increase that is expected to be higher than the rate of inflation. Considering that house prices in many areas are already over A$3 million, this means that the price of some detached homes could increase by A$100,000 in just one year.
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In addition, Cameron Kusher, head of economic research at PropTrack, noted that the Melbourne market's relative abundance of housing choices and more affordable relative prices have strengthened Melbourne's appeal among home buyers.
Despite the current economic climate, house prices in Sydney and Melbourne continue to perform strongly. propTrack's data shows that property values in Sydney have risen by an average of 5.8% over the past year, and upcoming growth is expected to match this performance. The combination of rising prices and a concurrent high interest rate environment has confused market participants, as traditionally high interest rates have tended to cause house prices to fall. However, the current market's rapid population growth, strong demand for homeownership, and shortage of housing supply appear to be offsetting this trend somewhat.