The national population is expected to reach 7.4 million, with Victoria projected to increase by 2 million, leading the growth in population. New South Wales is expected to add 1.7 million residents, Queensland 1.6 million, and Western Australia 904,000.
The real estate markets in these states are expected to benefit from robust population growth, which could support an increase in property prices. Population growth is representative of both rental and purchasing demands, making it a fundamental driver for rising house prices, provided there is an appropriate supply response.
Melbourne is projected to experience a population growth of 1.6 million over the same period, surpassing Sydney's anticipated growth of 1.2 million. Brisbane's population is expected to increase by 974,000, while Perth is projected to add 979,000 residents.
Forecasts suggest that the western, southeastern, and inner-city areas of Melbourne will experience the strongest population growth, adding nearly 1 million residents over the next 20 years. This growth accounts for 46% of the total population increase in Victoria and will require an additional 422,000 housing units. Population growth is concentrated in certain localities such as Truganina, Mickleham, and Cranbourne South.
In Sydney, the southwest, Blacktown, Parramatta, and the inner city are expected to see the most robust population growth over the next 20 years. An additional 572,000 people are expected to move into these areas, necessitating an increase of 267,000 housing units.
According to Arjun Paliwal, the research director at InvestorKit, due to the increasing demand from strong population growth and subdued performances in the past few years, the time for Melbourne's property prices to stabilize and rise in the medium to long term has matured.
He believes that investors should focus on cities with a strong history of growth, such as Melbourne, as lower property price growth can actually be a good sign.
In the face of the challenge of skyrocketing housing demand in Australia over the next 20 years, increasing housing supply is crucial. Melbourne is estimated to need 723,000 housing units, Sydney 582,000, Brisbane an additional 381,000, and Perth 334,000.
To meet the housing demand brought by population growth, new housing supply is expected to be built in Riverstone, Penrith, Leppington, Campbelltown, Gilead, Parramatta in Melbourne, and in the Sydney central business district.
However, simply increasing housing supply is not enough to solve the problem. Affordability and sustainable development issues also need to be addressed.
Governments and relevant stakeholders should take measures to promote diversification in housing supply, including providing medium-sized and affordable housing and rental properties. Furthermore, urban planning and infrastructure development should be aligned with population growth to ensure residents can enjoy a good quality of life.